船舶 货物

More than 10 LPG shipments are set to arrive in Asia from the Americas and West Africa in January and February to take advantage of a two-month price rally that opened an arbitrage window, but the expected supply has pressured prices in recent days, trade and shipping sources said Friday.

The latest fixtures include the 47,386 mt BW Maple, which is expected to load a mixed propane/butane cargo from the Escravos terminal in Nigeria around mid-January, sources said. The vessel is now in Ennore on India's east coast, according to Platts oil tracking software cFlow.

The 46,025-mt Yuricosmos is expected to load a propane cargo from Houston around end-January, before heading to Japan, sources said. The VLGC is currently in Chiba, Japan, according to cFlow.

"Some people expect around 10 full arbitrage cargoes to come to [Asia], which gives a bearish tone to the market right now," a North Asian trader said. "Probably they are not only from the US but also other origins as well."

A shipping source said: "I think some West African tons in January will head east and some Houston January cargoes as well -- all of them are importer cargoes."

Shipping and trade sources said six other VLGCs carrying 44,000 mt each of propane had either loaded or will load from the Enterprise Houston Ship Channel LPG export facility in late November or early December. They are due to arrive in Asia in January.

Cargoes aboard the vessels Jeanne Marie, Nadeshiko Gas, G Symphony, Clipper Victory or Ronald N, BW Energy and BW Cedar will be shipped to Asia by Geogas, Japanese trading firms Astomos and Eneos Globe, Petredec and ExxonMobil.

Another three US propane cargoes will be loaded around early, mid- and late December from the Targa Resources export terminal bound for Asia, sources said. Petredec and Gunvor are shipping them, they added.

Sources said around 11 shipments are due to arrive in Asia in December carrying cargoes of 33,000-44,000 mt each. The supply sources include Nigeria and Algeria and firms Enterprise and Targa, they said.

Platts previously reported that the 44,000-mt BW Helios left Pisco, Peru, November 29 headed for Asia.

PROPANE PRICES TAKING A HIT

The Asian propane market has dipped this week after a two-month rally, due to concerns about plentiful supply particularly in January, a Japanese utility's plan to not buy LPG as winter fuel in December given the recent high prices, and a halt in buying support from Glencore.

The recent surge pushed propane to near all-time highs and butane to record-peaks.

"The market is long on propane at the moment, and traders who have pushed up the market successfully in December probably do not want to work that hard for January," another market source said. "For the second half of January especially we are seeing plenty of cargoes."

Propane for delivery along the Singapore-Japan route 30-45 days forward was assessed at $1,037/mt Thursday, its lowest since November 18. Butane was assessed at $1,147/mt Thursday, its weakest since November 11.

A week ago, propane was assessed at $1,166/mt on November 29, its highest since March 20, 2012, when it hit $1,172/mt, and near the record high of $1,305/mt on February 28, Platts data showed. Butane was assessed at a record high of $1,291/mt on November 29.

The recent rally in Asia widened price differentials between the US and Japan to arbitrage levels not seen since the winter of 2012. But the gap has since narrowed as more US-sourced supply starts flowing to Asia.

Platts assessed the FOB Houston propane cargo market at a premium of 32 cents/gal ($166.72/mt) to Mont Belvieu prices Thursday, down 7 cents from Wednesday and 26 cents ($135.46/mt) below an all-time high assessment of plus 58 cents/gal set on November 27.

The differential is a gauge of arbitrage values for Houston-loaded propane cargoes.

"Enterprise sold a spot cargo two weeks ago at more than 60 cents/gal over Mont Belvieu, I hope they don't expect that anytime soon," a Gulf Coast LPG source said.

However, the Houston area has experienced fog in the past few days, delaying loading times at Enterprise's Houston Ship Channel LPG terminal. This has pushed some barrels back into Mont Belvieu and is one reason propane dipped Thursday despite higher crude futures, sources said Thursday.

At least one contract holder who lifts propane from Enterprise's Houston LPG terminal is experiencing delays in loading a vessel with cargo set for delivery in H1 December, a source said.

A fully laden VLGC is able to carry around 550,000 barrels of propane and can load at the Enterprise LPG terminal in as little as 24 hours. VLGCs are not allowed to traverse the channel at night.

Three VLGCs were observed anchored off the coast of Galveston, ship tracking software Platts cFlow showed Thursday.

Combined, Enterprise and Targa load roughly 17 VLGC cargoes per month. Enterprise could not be reached for comment.

JJ Plunkett, a spokesman for the Houston Ship Channel, said inbound traffic was expected to restart Thursday evening as a cold front enters the Gulf Coast region.

Propane at Mont Belvieu has climbed 8.6% week on week due to a bullish storage report and colder weather.

"It could be a bit of profit taking too," a Gulf Coast broker said.

Source: Platts